Rcession on the Horizon?

When the excess return on long-term vs short-term loans inverts, and becomes negative, investors take notice and begin to fear a recession. That metric is nearly zero now after recently being above 1%.

Bill Maher complained in a recent podcast that he was being accused of hoping for a market crash. In fact, he argued, what he had said was that he hoped that a recession would bring the electorate to their senses and rid themselves of Narcissus I.

http://thehill.com/homenews/media/391625-bill-maher-bring-on-the-recession-if-it-means-getting-rid-of-trump

As I was listening not to his original plea, but his defense, I was curious about a number of things he said in his rant, beginning with his statement that we would survive a recession, but not survive much more of Narcissus I. He then went on to say that every Republican President since Hoover had presided over a recession, many more than one. I think he said there had been  42 recessions in total under Republican presidents. I’ve checked two things out:

1. Is it true that recessions are more likely under Republican leadership? The answer appears to be a resounding affirmative:

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/republicans-1928-control/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-21/republican-presidents-and-recessions-a-pattern-trump-would-like-to-break

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/11/20/trumps-turn-republican-presidents-rule-recessions/93976832/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/238600/gdp-per-capita-growth-by-us-president-from-hoover-to-obama/

Any way you slice it, folks are worse off always under a Republican president than under a democratic president. The only president that makes it even close was the growth under Gerald Ford, the least republican of all republican presidents.

2. Do recessions benefit anybody? The answer is, again, a resounding affirmative:

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/280/recession/does-anyone-benefit-from-a-recession/

https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/10/18/shrink-inequality-to-grow-the-economy/when-economic-growth-benefits-only-a-few

http://theweek.com/articles/460179/charts-how-rich-won-great-recession

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/06/one-percent-2008-recession-recovery-income

Any way you slice it, the rich inevitably profit from recessions. This cannot be accidental, can it?